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The pandemic and war in Ukraine have heightened concerns over national security in different fields, including food supply.

Maintaining resilience as a new world order takes shape - sigma 05/2022 Navigation on swissre.com Quick navigation Content Homepage Business Unit Navigation Navigation Search Company Unit Navigation Swiss Re Institute(Click to open Universal Navigation) Close Universal Navigation Swiss Re Group Swiss Re Institute Reinsurance Corporate Solutions Swiss Re Foundation Close Universal Navigation , to Homepage Main Navigation Research Events Partnerships Advisors About us Service Navigation Regional sites Regional sites (click to show list of locations and regional sites) Americas Brazil Country Website Canada Colombia Country Website Mexico Country Website United States of America Asia-Pacific Australia Country Website China Country Website Hong Kong SAR India Japan Country Website Republic of Korea Country Website Malaysia Singapore New Zealand Country Website Europe--Middle-East----Africa Denmark France Germany Israel Italy Ivory Coast Luxembourg Slovak Republic Spain Switzerland United Kingdom South Africa Discover all locations Discover all Corporate Solutions locations Close Worldwide Open Search Search Enter search term Type to search entire website submit search Close Search Open Main Navigation Close Close Navigation back Research Our applied research covers emerging risks, industry trends and topical deep dives. 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Article information and share options This article was written By Caroline De Souza Rodrigues Cabral, Senior Economist, Swiss Re Institute & Hendre Garbers, Economist Macro Strategy, Swiss Re Institute & Fiona Gillespie, Senior Economist Macro Strategy, Swiss Re Institute & Jessie Guo, Senior Economist, Swiss Re Institute & Roman Lechner, P&C Economic Research Lead, Swiss Re Institute & Mahesh H Puttaiah, Senior Insurance Economist, Swiss Re Institute & Patrick Saner, Head Macro Strategy, Swiss Re Institute & Diana Van der Watt, Economist, Swiss Re Institute & Li Xing, Head Insurance Market Analysis, Swiss Re Institute Published on: 09 Sep 2022 Share Get the publication Article Maintaining resilience as a new world order takes shape Choose a chapter A realignment global supply chains The green transition Food security Share Get the publication Chapter Navigation A realignment global supply chains The green transition Food security The pandemic and war in Ukraine have heightened concerns over national security in different fields, including food supply. Increasingly, we expect local and regional self-preservation instincts will come to underlie policy decisions, with three main tenets leading to a new multi-polar world of blocs of economic influence. A realignment global supply chains The pandemic served as a wake-up call for advanced economies to become more supply-chain resilient, not least to mitigate hold-ups to delivery in key sectors such as healthcare and electronics. To strengthen supply chain resilience, many advanced countries have been discussing "re-shoring" and "friend-shoring" part of overseas production activities back home, and raising local procurement rates. Despite reducing overall trade, in this sigma we simulate that reshoring would boost global GDP by 0.2% over five years, with the US, UK and Germany benefitting most. Export-substitution countries with higher external trade dependency such as Mexico and Vietnam lose most in a reshoring scenario but, conversely, gain most from friend-shoring activity. From the insurance angle, we estimate that the same reshoring activity would generate USD 30 billion in global commercial insurance premiums over five years, mostly from engineering, property and liability covers. Marine and trade credit premiums would fall. Friend-shoring would generate USD 3 billion in premiums. The world faces supply chain disruptions, and energy and food crises. Insurance is becoming even more vital, supporting the global economy with protection against the risks inherent in the shift to a new multi-polar world order. Jerome Jean Haegeli, Group Chief Economist, Swiss Re Share Click here to share this quote and article. The green transition Heightened concerns over energy security because of the war in Ukraine has focussed attention on the need to accelerate the transition to green energy. Many countries have targets for investments in renewable energy capacity and we estimate that meeting those targets would generate cumulative global insurance premiums of USD 237 billion by 2035 from, for example, construction and engineering all risk covers. These premiums will in part replace business from fossil-fuel risks as insurers pull back from underwriting the latter. Food security We expect that deglobalisation, the second-order effects from high energy prices and climate change impacts will keep food prices elevated. In a multi-polar world of more fragmented trade flows, countries highly dependent on food imports (many low-income countries) will be most exposed to disruptions to supply chains. Agricultural insurance can be a key tool in maintaining food security: we forecast a near-doubling of global agricultural premiums by 2030. Tags building societal resilience macroeconomic growth renewable energy food security insurance crop insurance sigma 5/2022 Maintaining resilience as a new world order takes shape Get the publication contact Get in contact with our experts Patrick Saner Head Macro Strategy Swiss Re Institute View profile of Patrick Saner Li Xing Head Insurance Market Analysis Swiss Re Institute View profile of Li Xing Jessie Guo Senior Economist Swiss Re Institute View profile of Jessie Guo Thomas Holzheu Chief Economist Americas Swiss Re Institute View profile of Thomas Holzheu See other sigma related content Recording available Webinar Global Executive Dialogue – Economic and Insurance Market Outlook 2023/24 Recording available 30 Nov 2022 Location: Online Read More about: Global Executive Dialogue – Economic and Insurance Market Outlook 2023/24 Expertise Publications Publication Latin America market report 2022: moderating growth amid rising headwinds 28 Nov 2022 Read More about: Latin America market report 2022: moderating growth amid rising headwinds Article In 5 charts: cautious insurance outlook in challenging economic market 23 Nov 2022 Read More about: In 5 charts: cautious insurance outlook in challenging economic market sigma Publication Economic stress reprices risk: global economic and insurance market outlook 2023/24 17 Nov 2022 Read More about: Economic stress reprices risk: global economic and insurance market outlook 2023/24 sigma Publication sigma 4/2022 - World insurance 13 Jul 2022 Read More about: sigma 4/2022 - World insurance Show previous slide Show next slide Partners in resilience Looking ahead to our 2022 Conference Season Discover Partners in resilience Footer Share Price CHF 00.0 − 0.0% CET Newsletters Subscribe about Subscribe to our newsletters Contact us Contact about Contact us About Privacy Terms of Use About Cookies Cookie Settings UK Slavery statement Follow us on LinkedIn Follow us on Twitter Follow us on YouTube Follow us on Instagram © 2023 Swiss Re All rights reserved. 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Maintaining resilience as a new world order takes shape | Swiss Re