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The market has had a rough start of the year flipping between positive and negative year-to-date returns. However, despite all of the recent turmoil from an emerging markets scare, concerns over how soon the Fed will start to hike interest rates and signs of deterioration in the underlying techni…

No One Will Ring The Bell At The Top | ZeroHedge HomePremiumContributorsChannelsAllBailoutCommoditiesCOVID-19CryptoEconomicsEnergyGeopoliticalMarketsMedicalMilitaryPersonal-FinancePoliticalTechnologyWeatherPartnersThe Market EarSpotGammaMerchAboutMoreRSSDonateAdvertiseLOGINLoginUsernamePasswordLoginCreate new accountReset your passwordThis site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.ZeroHedge ReadsAlt-MarketAntiWar.comBitcoin MagazineBombthrowerBULLIONSTARCapitalist ExploitsChristophe BarraudDollar CollapseDr. Housing BubbleFinancial RevolutionistForexLiveGains Pains & CapitalGefiraGMG ResearchGold CoreImplode-ExplodeInsider PaperLiberty BlitzkriegMax KeiserMises InstituteMish TalkNewsquawkOf Two MindsOil PriceOpen The BooksPeter SchiffQTR’s Fringe FinanceSafehavenSlope of HopeSpotGammaTF Metals ReportThe Automatic EarthThe Burning PlatformThe Economic PopulistThe Libertarian InstituteThe SakerThemis TradingValue WalkVisual Combat Banzai7Wolf StreetExpandNo One Will Ring The Bell At The Topby Tyler DurdenWednesday, Apr 09, 2014 - 07:26 AMThis article is archived.Upgrade to premium to access all of the ZeroHedge archive.Already a member? Sign in.Introducing ZeroHedge Premium. Why Premium?BASICSnowflakeFREEREGISTER TO UNLOCK THESE FEATURES- Commentary and Analysis- Daily Recap Newsletter- Community Comments- Free 2-Week Trial To SpotGammaSELECTPREMIUMJack's Lack Of CensorshipONLY $25/MONTHBILLED ANNUALLY OR $30 MONTHLYAll BASIC features, plus:- Ad-free environment- Unmoderated comment section- Premium commentary features including user tiering and comment tracking (coming soon)- Access to private, invitation-only Zerohedge twitter account- Exclusive access to The Market Ear content- Access to Newsquawk breaking news and market squawks, and discount for real-time commentary- Early glimpse at all our postsSELECTPROFESSIONALProject MayhemONLY $85/MONTHBILLED ANNUALLY OR $100 MONTHLYAll PREMIUM features, plus:- Access to our constantly updated research database via a private dropbox account (including hedge fund letters, research reports and analyses from all the top Wall Street banks)- Notifications for new posts, breaking news and comment replies (coming soon)- Discord-based chat and commentary rooms (coming soon)Contact us about Enterprise Solutions priced at $5,000/moSELECT38,768Trending on Zerohedge"Has Kyiv Already Lost?" – Germany's Welt Newspaper Claims Ukraine Is "Crumbling" & That Orbán Was Right But "Nobody Dares Admit It"Bloodbaths Change The World - 9/11Miss Universe Alleged To Be At Center Of Plot To Overthrow Nicaraguan GovernmentWant more of the news you won't get anywhere else?Sign up now and get a curated daily recap of the most popular and important stories delivered right to your inbox.TLT's tumultuous trend and tech troublesKing TLT TLT is hitting the big negative trend line here. We are above the 100 day, but still far from the 200 day. Our logic from Oct 23, Dare the TLT, worked out very well. TLT momentum remains strong, but we would book profits dynamically and use some of those for TLT call spreads. Source: Refinitiv   Amazing Ackman On Oct 23 we outlined our rates logic in our thematic email, The Ackman top. We wrote: "...parabolic moves tend to have furious price action when they reverse". Fast forward and the 10 year has gone from 4.9% to currently printing 4.17%. We are well below the 100 day, and note the big trend since Q1 2022 comes in around these levels. A close below it and we will try the 200 day at 4%. Source: Refinitiv   Soggy NASDAQ You know tech is well offered when NASDAQ can't catch a proper bid even with rates moving sharply lower. Maybe rates moving lower are trying to tell us something? Source: Refinitiv   Not all rate cut cycles are positive Rate cut cycle hopes are always high, but they are not always positive when they finally happen. Looking at the eight rate cut cycles since 1985, the last six months before the first rate cut are generally positive for both stocks and bonds. However, during the rate cut cycles, the picture for equities is more complicated with only half of the cycles giving a positive return. The last three coincided with recessions (in 2001, 2008 and 2020) and resulted in big losses for equities. So, while the anticipation of rate cuts generally is positive, the joy only lasts if a recession is avoided. (SEB X-Asset) Golden "dislocation" Gold and rates have moved in tandem, but the latest divergence shouldn't be dismissed. Gold vs US 10 year inv. Source: Refinitiv   Downside convexity in gold Computers have chased the yellow metal lately. Note the downside convexity according to projected flows in a big down scenario... Source: GS   Time to switch Bannister argues for the cyclical value vs cyclical growth logic. "Cyclical Value now equates to a mid-40s major slowdown for the PMI Mfg...…and Cyclical Growth already reflects a >60 PMI Mfg". Source: Stifel   It was fun while it lasted Corporate FOMO kicked in big time in November. As we mentioned earlier today, the blackout window starts on Dec 11 and lasts until Jan 19 (GS). Source: BofA   Not even speculation is helping Speculation (margin trading debt) is a big driver of Chinese equities. This time nothing seems to help imploding China. Source: Refinitiv   Can we just dismiss the China bear? SPX and CSI 300 decoupled a while ago, but the China implosion could revive as a narrative...and China matters. Source: Refinitiv a day ago at 13:16Time to talk about bond volatility againNot huge, but not small Very few are talking about the latest pick up in bond volatility. Yes, rates are moving lower, but the MOVE has put in a rather spectacular move higher recently. Source: Refinitiv   Equites trade down when MOVE starts moving up Equities reversed violently lower in September just when bond volatility started surging. We saw a similar, but smaller, set up in July. Pay close attention to the latest surge in bond volatility. It could spill over to equities... Source: Refinitiv   Exploding higher The MOVE vs VIX ratio has surged again and the ratio is at "this century highs". The motion since late October has been "impressive". Source: Refinitiv   Dormant vs awake VIX remains more or less dormant. MOVE on the other hand has really woken up. Source: Refinitiv 5 hours ago at 9:04Exuberant breadth and magnificent sellingDon't fear shitty breadth You should fear "exuberant" breadth. The percentage of SPX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average has exploded to the upside. Source: Tradingview   Magnificent selling Mag 7 have been net sold in 15/17 past sessions, almost only long sales, according to Goldman's PB. Cumulative net flow YTD is basically flat, having been as high as 50% this summer. Source: GS   Down, but far from out Mag 7 selling has been "impressive" lately, but overall exposure remains elevated if you zoom out. Source: GS   Small is beautiful Russell has continued marching higher, trading at the highest levels since early September, but don't forget Russell is the king of mean reversion trades. We are approaching resistance area slightly higher. RSI getting rather elevated... Source: Refinitiv   More of the same Low quality crap printing new recent highs, leaving "hot" QQQ way behind.... Source: Refinitiv   Maybe oil isn't that irrational? Oil vs Citi economic surprise index... Source: Refinitiv   Oil and rates Go figure what these two assets are pricing... Source: Refinitiv   Stretched HSBC: "Our short-term sentiment and positioning indicators are more stretched now". Source: HSBC   Fed decides Swings in how the market is pricing Fed policy for 2024 have been the major driver of bonds and stocks this year. Source: MS   Killing me softly Skew continues moving lower on an almost daily basis. Market is boring and the crowd is pricing downside risk "confidently". Use this opportunity to look for hedges/downside speculative trades via options (more here). Source: Refinitiv   See TME's daily newsletter email above. For the 24/7 market intelligence feed and thematic trading emails, sign up for ZH premium here. an hour ago at 13:21Upgrade to PremiumToday's Top Stories Previous"Has Kyiv Already Lost?" – Germany's Welt Newspaper Claims Ukraine Is "Crumbling" & That Orbán Was Right But "Nobody Dares Admit It"Bloodbaths Change The World - 9/11Miss Universe Alleged To Be At Center Of Plot To Overthrow Nicaraguan GovernmentBelgians Reject African Female 'Santa Claus'Philadelphia Macy's Security Guard Fatally Stabbed By Shoplifter With Over A Dozen Prior ArrestsTrump Campaign Strikes Back At 'Dictator' Hit-Piece In WaPo, Gaetz Says 'Green-Lighting Assassination'Billionaire Palmer Luckey Unveils Jet-Powered VTOL Kamikaze Drone "I'm Leaving The House": Ousted Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy Taking His Ball, Going Home"They're Saying The Quiet Part Out Loud": Tucker And Massie Slam Additional Ukraine Funds For 'War They Cannot Win'The Money Supply Continues Its Biggest Collapse Since The Great Depression Next Contact Information+Assistance and Requests: Click hereTips: [email protected]: [email protected]: [email protected]: Click hereAbuse/Complaints: [email protected] Reading+Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" GuideIt would be very wise of you to study our privacy policy and our (non)policy on conflicts / full disclosure.Here's our Cookie Policy.  How to report offensive commentsNotice on Racial Discrimination. Discrimination NoticePrivacy PolicyDisclosureDisclaimerAdvertise with ZeroHedgeCopyright ©2009-2023 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD