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Some curious headlines just out from the ICE via BBG: ICE TO LIMIT BRENT, WTI PRICE MOVEMENT $1.25/BBL FOR 5 SECONDSICE TO SET INTERVAL PRICE LIMITS ON CRUDE, GASOIL FROM APRIL 1ICE TO LIMIT GASOIL PRICE MOVEMENT $10 A TON FOR 5 SECONDS Either SkyNet is about to take over the last bastion - the com…

Are Big Crude Price Swings Coming? | ZeroHedge HomePremiumContributorsChannelsAllBailoutCommoditiesCOVID-19CryptoEconomicsEnergyGeopoliticalMarketsMedicalMilitaryPersonal-FinancePoliticalTechnologyWeatherPartnersThe Market EarSpotGammaMerchAboutMoreRSSDonateAdvertiseLOGINLoginUsernamePasswordLoginCreate new accountReset your passwordThis site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.ZeroHedge ReadsAlt-MarketAntiWar.comBitcoin MagazineBombthrowerBULLIONSTARCapitalist ExploitsChristophe BarraudDollar CollapseDr. Housing BubbleFinancial RevolutionistForexLiveGains Pains & CapitalGefiraGMG ResearchGold CoreImplode-ExplodeInsider PaperLiberty BlitzkriegMax KeiserMises InstituteMish TalkNewsquawkOf Two MindsOil PriceOpen The BooksPeter SchiffQTR’s Fringe FinanceSafehavenSlope of HopeSpotGammaTF Metals ReportThe Automatic EarthThe Burning PlatformThe Economic PopulistThe Libertarian InstituteThe SakerThemis TradingValue WalkVisual Combat Banzai7Wolf StreetExpandAre Big Crude Price Swings Coming?by Tyler DurdenTuesday, Mar 20, 2012 - 10:33 AMThis article is archived.Upgrade to premium to access all of the ZeroHedge archive.Already a member? Sign in.Introducing ZeroHedge Premium. Why Premium?PREMIUMJack's Lack Of CensorshipONLY $25/MONTHBILLED ANNUALLY OR $30 MONTHLYAll BASIC features, plus:- Ad-free environment- Unmoderated comment section- Premium commentary features including user tiering and comment tracking (coming soon)- Access to private, invitation-only Zerohedge twitter account- Exclusive access to The Market Ear content- Access to Newsquawk breaking news and market squawks, and discount for real-time commentary- Early glimpse at all our postsSELECTPROFESSIONALProject MayhemONLY $85/MONTHBILLED ANNUALLY OR $100 MONTHLYAll PREMIUM features, plus:- Access to our constantly updated research database via a private dropbox account (including hedge fund letters, research reports and analyses from all the top Wall Street banks)- Notifications for new posts, breaking news and comment replies (coming soon)- Discord-based chat and commentary rooms (coming soon)Contact us about Enterprise Solutions priced at $5,000/moSELECT22,415More news stories on ZerohedgeWant more of the news you won't get anywhere else?Sign up now and get a curated daily recap of the most popular and important stories delivered right to your inbox.China: Boom to bust - is there hope for a comeback?You can buy at early 2019 levels Yes, we are referring to the crashed CSI 300 index. The China bear seems unstoppable. For now, the world doesn't care. Chart shows the huge gap between the CSI 300 and the SPX. Source: Refinitiv   When giants fall There is little connection between NASDAQ and Chinese tech, but worth a reminder that even the hottest things can go out of fashion. Source: Refinitiv   China's tech "export" China is doubling down on its new favored growth drivers: increased competition with advanced economies. Source: TS Lombard   The China speculation crash ChiNext is the most speculative part of the Chinese equity market. The index is in a full crash mode, despite the fact "speculation" (margin trading debt) has stayed relatively elevated. Imagine this starts coming off as well... Source: Refinitiv   3 questions in China Citi asking themselves: 1. Can non-property sectors outpace the real estate drag for a smooth de-property transition? 2. Can policies be responsive and effective to strike growth stabilization? 3. Can all the good things accumulate and support confidence revival? Zhongzhi Mizuho on the latest China situation: China's financial sector is facing challenges due to a real estate downturn. Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, a significant player in China's trust industry, recently declared bankruptcy in Beijing, citing an asset shortfall of around RMB260 billion to cover its debt. This situation is linked to the company's substantial lending exposure to property developers and local government financing vehicles. However, the direct impact on China's financial system is expected to be relatively limited, as most of Zhongzhi's creditors are wealthy individuals rather than financial institutions. Fading China Global growth contribution in nominal USD (bn) per year clearly shows the latest China fade. Source: GS   The China iron gap CSI 300 vs iron ore gap at very wide levels. Source: Refinitiv   Will last year’s intra-equity trade persist? Who in their right mind would bet "long China / short AI" right now, apart from this being the mother of all contrarian trades...and China for sure has some comeback potential. Source: Macrobond   Dare China (ever) It is rare to see Chinese equities down more than 3 years in a row... Source: GS 6 hours ago at 4:08Short term positioning post the sell off: Less stretchedShort term positioning monitor turned very negative JPM's "tactical positioning monitor" shows the following: 1 week change turned very negative, but 4 week still positive (+0.4z). Source: JPM PI   Pros selling Funding spreads decreased during the sell off, according to GS it is a sign professional investors have been selling (levered longs in futures, swaps and options). Source: GS   Moderating MS PB reporting: "Net leverage and gross leverage across US L/S funds exited 2023 near 12M highs, but levels moderated this week due to a combination of net selling from L/S funds and mark-to-market impacts from equities tracking lower. Net leverage fell ~5% WoW to 46% (88th %-tile over past 12M) while gross leverage fell ~9% to 191% (58th %-tile over past 12M)."   When NAAIM is this stretched.... ....stocks actually continue to rise. Jefferies: "NAAIM Exposure Index hit a whopping 103 in the final week of the year: it represents the average exposure of the member firms, ranging from -200% (leveraged short) to 200% (leveraged long). So, 103 isn’t just high, it means that on average folks are leveraged long. breaking through 100 has only happened on 17 occasions. Normally, our gut instinct would be that investors getting extremely long is cause for concern... But unlike the AAII Bull-Bear spread (which is sentiment, and therefore more mouth than money), heavy risk tilts are a positive signal...~90% of the time, 6 & 12mo SPX returns are positive, with 12mo returns averaging a huge 13.5%." Source: Jefferies   Less stretched Investor sentiment holding on to the high ground, RSI moves back from ‘overbought’. Source: Macrobond   Not stretched Goldman's sentiment indicator is no longer stretched. This after having been stretched over the past 2 months. Source: Goldman 5 hours ago at 4:59Upgrade to PremiumToday's Top Stories PreviousThe Great Taking Exposes The Financial End GameThe AARP Just Told Its 38 Million Members To Get An 8th (Yes, Eighth!!) 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