NOAA forecasts quicker, stronger peak of solar activity | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center Skip to main content NOAA Logo NWS Logo Organizations Space Weather Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Tuesday, January 09, 2024 17:20:36 UTC Main menu Home About Space WeatherImpactsEarth's Climate Electric Power Transmission GPS Systems HF Radio Communications Satellite Communications Satellite Drag Partners and StakeholdersCommercial Service Providers Federal Agencies International Organizations International Service Providers Space Weather Research PhenomenaAurora Coronal Holes Coronal Mass Ejections Earth's Magnetosphere F10.7 cm Radio Emissions Galactic Cosmic Rays Geomagnetic Storms Ionosphere Ionospheric Scintillation Radiation Belts Solar EUV Irradiance Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts) Solar Radiation Storm Solar Wind Sunspots/Solar Cycle Total Electron Content Additional InfoNOAA Space Weather Scales Customer Needs & Requirements Study Products and DataForecasts27-Day Outlook of 10.7 cm Radio Flux and Geomagnetic Indices 3-Day Forecast 3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast Forecast Discussion Predicted Sunspot Numbers and Radio Flux Report and Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity Solar Cycle Progression Space Weather Advisory Outlook USAF 45-Day Ap and F10.7cm Flux Forecast Weekly Highlights and 27-Day Forecast ReportsForecast Verification Geoalert - Alerts, Analysis and Forecast Codes Geophysical Alert Solar and Geophysical Event Reports USAF Magnetometer Analysis Report ModelsAurora - 30 Minute Forecast CTIPe Total Electron Content Forecast D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) Geoelectric Field Models (US Canada 1D & 3D EMTF CONUS) Geospace Geomagnetic Activity Plot Geospace Ground Magnetic Perturbation Maps Geospace Magnetosphere Movies North American (US Region) Total Electron Content North American Total Electron Content Relativistic Electron Forecast Model SEAESRT STORM Time Empirical Ionospheric Correction WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction WAM-IPE ObservationsBoulder Magnetometer GOES Electron Flux GOES Magnetometer GOES Proton Flux GOES Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) GOES X-ray Flux LASCO Coronagraph Planetary K-index Real Time Solar Wind Satellite Environment Solar Synoptic Map Space Weather Overview Station K and A Indices SummariesSolar & Geophysical Activity Summary Solar Region Summary Summary of Space Weather Observations Alerts, Watches and WarningsAlerts, Watches and Warnings Notifications Timeline ExperimentalACE Real-Time Solar Wind Aurora Viewline for Tonight and Tomorrow Night International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Space Weather Advisory Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) Data Access DashboardsAurora Aviation Electric Power Emergency Management Global Positioning System Radio Satellites Space Weather Enthusiasts Media and ResourcesEducation and Outreach Glossary News Archive Newsroom Subscribe Annual Meeting Feedback HomeNOAA forecasts quicker, stronger peak of solar activity Search form Search using USASearch NOAA Scales mini https://services.swpc.noaa.gov Space Weather Conditions on NOAA Scales 24-Hour Observed Maximums R none S none G none Latest Observed R none S none G none Predicted 2024-01-09 UTC R1-R2 45% R3-R5 10% S1 or greater 10% G none Predicted 2024-01-10 UTC R1-R2 45% R3-R5 10% S1 or greater 10% G none Predicted 2024-01-11 UTC R1-R2 45% R3-R5 10% S1 or greater 10% G none 1234PrevNext R none S none G none Current Space Weather Conditions on NOAA Scales R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout Impacts HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for brief intervals. More about the NOAA Space Weather Scales NOAA forecasts quicker, stronger peak of solar activity NOAA forecasts quicker, stronger peak of solar activity published: Tuesday, December 19, 2023 19:29 UTC NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issued a revised prediction for solar activity during Solar Cycle 25 that concludes solar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level than that predicted by an expert panel in December 2019. The updated prediction now calls for Solar Cycle 25 to peak between January and October of 2024, with a maximum sunspot number between 137 and 173. The prediction marks the debut of SWPC’s experimental Updated Solar Cycle Prediction Product on the Space Weather Prediction Testbed website. The website offers SWPC partners and customers the opportunity to provide feedback on the product before it is fully integrated into SWPC operations. During this time, the product will be updated monthly to provide an accurate, up-to-date prediction for the progression of Solar Cycle 25, which began in 2019. Mark Miesch, a CIRES (link is external) scientist who serves as the solar cycle lead at SWPC, said the forecast for Cycle 25 had not been updated since its release in 2019 and is no longer reliable enough for SWPC’s customers, many of whom plan their operations years in advance. “We expect that our new experimental forecast will be much more accurate than the 2019 panel prediction and, unlike previous solar cycle predictions, it will be continuously updated on a monthly basis as new sunspot observations become available,” Miesch said. “It’s a pretty significant change.” No two solar cycles are the same, Miesch added. Solar magnetic variability - here measured by sunspot number - regulates the frequency and severity of space weather events and hazards, which can interfere with the electrical grid, degrade GPS signals, increase orbital drag on satellites, and pose radiation hazards to airline crews and astronauts. Stronger solar cycles produce more solar storms with greater intensity and therefore pose a larger hazard for these critical technologies and services. The 2019 panel, convened by NOAA, NASA, and the International Space Environment Services (ISES), predicted that Solar Cycle 25, following a relatively weak Solar Cycle 24, would also be weak, peaking in July 2025 at a maximum sunspot number of 115. Solar Cycle 24 was the weakest cycle in 100 years with sunspot number peaking at 116 for the solar cycle, well below average, which is 179. NOAA’s new prediction, though larger than the panel prediction and larger than Cycle 24, would still make the strength of Solar Cycle 25 below average. 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