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It doesn’t take any special insight into the situation in Ukraine to conclude that no one narrative illuminates all the dynamics. Various contesting Grand Narratives have emerged in the media--neofascist coup, rampant corruption, east versus west, to name a few--but these only describe a few of the regional fault lines and complexities... I describe the U.S. Deep State as the National Security State which enables a vast Imperial structure that incorporates hard and soft power--military, diplomatic, intelligence, finance, commercial, energy, media, higher education--in a system of global domination and influence. One key feature of the Deep State everywhere is that it makes decisions behind closed doors and the surface government simply ratifies and implements the decisions. I have covered various aspects of geopolitics and the Deep State for years, for example:

Ukraine: A Deep State Analysis | ZeroHedge HomePremiumContributorsChannelsAllBailoutCommoditiesCOVID-19CryptoEconomicsEnergyGeopoliticalMarketsMedicalMilitaryPersonal-FinancePoliticalTechnologyWeatherPartnersThe Market EarSpotGammaMerchAboutMoreRSSDonateAdvertiseLOGINLoginUsernamePasswordLoginCreate new accountReset your passwordThis site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.ZeroHedge ReadsAlt-MarketAntiWar.comBitcoin MagazineBombthrowerBULLIONSTARCapitalist ExploitsChristophe BarraudDollar CollapseDr. Housing BubbleFinancial RevolutionistForexLiveGains Pains & CapitalGefiraGMG ResearchGold CoreImplode-ExplodeInsider PaperLiberty BlitzkriegMax KeiserMises InstituteMish TalkNewsquawkOf Two MindsOil PriceOpen The BooksPeter SchiffQTR’s Fringe FinanceSafehavenSlope of HopeSpotGammaTF Metals ReportThe Automatic EarthThe Burning PlatformThe Economic PopulistThe Libertarian InstituteThe SakerThemis TradingValue WalkVisual Combat Banzai7Wolf StreetExpandUkraine: A Deep State Analysisby Tyler DurdenThursday, Feb 27, 2014 - 03:48 PMThis article is archived.Upgrade to premium to access all of the ZeroHedge archive.Already a member? 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Why Premium?PREMIUMJack's Lack Of CensorshipONLY $25/MONTHBILLED ANNUALLY OR $30 MONTHLYAll BASIC features, plus:- Ad-free environment- Unmoderated comment section- Premium commentary features including user tiering and comment tracking (coming soon)- Access to private, invitation-only Zerohedge twitter account- Exclusive access to The Market Ear content- Access to Newsquawk breaking news and market squawks, and discount for real-time commentary- Early glimpse at all our postsSELECTPROFESSIONALProject MayhemONLY $85/MONTHBILLED ANNUALLY OR $100 MONTHLYAll PREMIUM features, plus:- Access to our constantly updated research database via a private dropbox account (including hedge fund letters, research reports and analyses from all the top Wall Street banks)- Notifications for new posts, breaking news and comment replies (coming soon)- Discord-based chat and commentary rooms (coming soon)Contact us about Enterprise Solutions priced at $5,000/moSELECTTrending on ZerohedgeFanigate Widens: Atlanta Trump Prosecutor's Alleged DA Lover Met With White House Counsel Before IndictmentVictor Davis Hanson: A Culture In CollapseTrump Will Be "The Winter Coat" - Charles Nenner Warns "The Cycle Is Turning Down Very Fast"Want more of the news you won't get anywhere else?Sign up now and get a curated daily recap of the most popular and important stories delivered right to your inbox.Front running the "low bar"Very low bar "Over the last 90 days, Wall Street analysts have cut their Q4 2023 earnings estimates far more than is usually the case. The rally late last year was not based on accelerating corporate fundamentals, but rather hopes for rate cuts in 2024. The good news is that companies have a very low bar to step over when they report Q4 results over the next month." (Data Trek) Less stretched Investor sentiment holding on to the high ground, RSI moves back from ‘overbought’. Source: Macrobond   Cyclicals love this NAAIM One of the things we noticed was that these exposure turns are pretty excellent for cyclicals vs. defensives, including ex tech. We continue to see oppty for the market to broaden out, or even rotate toward some of the sectors that have significantly lagged, especially when looking back over the past several years (or decade). Source: Jefferies   Source: Jefferies   21 day moving average magic SPX dipped sub the 21 day, but is back above it again. The doji we outlined over the weekend is important, especially post the confirmation candle today. Source: Refinitiv   Works both ways Short gamma land means dealers need to buy on upticks, and sell on downticks. Expect wider ranges... Source: Tier1Alpha   Returns around the end of Fed hiking cycles Relatively well bid... Source: GS   Overpaying for volatility The "cleanest" way to sell equity volatility is selling SPX variance. Chart shows the spread between the 3 month variance (implied) and 3 month realized volatility. The spread has an average of 7.6 over the past year. In case you wonder why so many new strategies with embedded options selling have boomed. Source: GS   Lead - lag impacts from higher rates Nobody has missed that net interest have fallen despite the rates surge, but "it can take up to 2 years for higher interest rates to feed into interest expenses." Source: Variant Perception   Not so fast... Looking at G3 inflation leading indicators, our US inflation LEI is now bottoming, while our Eurozone inflation LEI remains in a downtrend. This bottoming in inflation is not consistent with the market pricing 5-6 Fed cuts WHILE the S&P close to all-time highs. (Variant Perception). Source: Variant Perception   Euro risk to consider A continuation of the Biden administration would mean maintaining current policies toward Europe. However, a Republican administration, especially one led by Trump, could bring significant changes. A Trump victory might disrupt the West's Ukraine policy, raise concerns about a US exit from NATO, and challenge European security. It could also lead to renewed trade disputes when the EU's 2021 trade deal with the US, which suspended Trump-era tariffs, expires in 2025. This uncertainty could deter investment and impact the Euro's attractiveness for capital flows away from the US. (GS) 10 hours ago at 1:26Upgrade to PremiumToday's Top Stories PreviousFanigate Widens: Atlanta Trump Prosecutor's Alleged DA Lover Met With White House Counsel Before IndictmentVictor Davis Hanson: A Culture In CollapseTrump Will Be "The Winter Coat" - Charles Nenner Warns "The Cycle Is Turning Down Very Fast"Did Loosening Gun Control Cause A Nationwide Drop In Homicides? 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