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Crude dynamics, crypto conundrums and static SPX

SPX - range remains intact

The 4720/4840 range remains in place. Not getting overly excited until we break out, either way...

Source: Refinitiv

Big spender

Friday's (1/12) VIX buyer of: 250k 2/14 17 calls at $0.68 (~$17mm notional) was "the largest outright block ever to print in VIX options". (Spotgamma/CBOE)

Oil - will it?

Will it close above the 50 day for the first time since mid October. Oil getting rather tight inside that "dynamic" formation.

Source: Refinitiv

Oil - will they?

CTA upside convexity looks "dynamic".

Source: GS

The Red Sea Ruckus and Retail supply chains

"Several attacks by Houthi rebels from Yemen have led to an 85% reduction in vessels transiting the Red Sea and Suez Canal, increasing travel times by ~2 weeks. While this has the largest immediate impact on Asia-Europe trade, Europe and the Indian subcontinent, and Asia-US East Coast are also impacted. The bottom line is that shipping is getting more costly - 2x in aggregate and 3x on Asia-Europe vs early December. We still view the fundamental problems of oversupply as unsolved, and the impact for retailers will depend on four factors: EU sales, Asia production, Sea freight routes, and Short Lead Time categories. A continued disruption will create bigger backlogs and limit empty container availability in Asia, and we believe global brands like Nike, Adidas, Capri that have Europe exposure will be more impacted. Brands that ship via Suez routes like Lululemon are also at risks" (Bernstein)

Source: Bernstein

Not remotely comparable

1. "...We think inflation fears related to Red Sea trade disruption are over-done

2. 2022 saw natural gas prices sky-rocket, global supply chains break down, and very high goods demand

3. The Red Sea problems are not remotely comparable, and financial markets have rightly not over-reacted..." (Barclays)

BTC - we haven't seen this in a while

BTC has not closed this much below the 50 day moving average since "forever".

Source: Refinitiv

BTC and the dollar

The connection remains in place. BTC vs DXY inverted.

Source: Refinitiv

BTC and rates

BTC and the 10 year inverted moving in tandem.

Source: Refinitiv

an hour ago at 12:44

Rates refusing, tech trying, while VIX and crap stay nervous

Tech leaving rates behind

The short term gap between NASDAQ and the 10 year (inv) is getting rather wide. Is leaving the rates narrative even possible?

Source: Refinitiv

That was quick

US 10 year approaching the 50 day moving average. 4.20% ish is the first resistance to watch.

Source: Refinitiv

Low quality crap

MEME and most shorted can't catch a bid, despite the latest crash. The gap vs NASDAQ is getting very wide.

Source: Refinitiv

Russell bear

The crowd chased small caps in size late last year, but the Russell is back to doing what it does best: lagging tech. Russell vs NASDAQ ratio continues puking.

Source: Refinitiv

VIX not "impressed"

The bid in VIX has resulted in the gap between VIX and SPX widening further.

Source: Refinitiv

VIX dealers are short calls

In size...0%tile.

Source: Nomura

VIX short gamma

Above 15 things get "destabilized" as dealers enter rather "juicy" short gamma.

Source: Nomura

Market and the elections

BCA sums it up: "The market will eventually be forced to react to rising odds of a sharp US national policy reversal. Investors should overweight government bonds and defensive equity sectors."

Source: BCA

4 hours ago at 10:39

Surging rates and stuck equities

4.2%

US 10 year broke the negative trend line a while ago. We are now well above the 21 day that has reversed and is sloping positively. The 50 day comes in around 4.2%, the first resistance to watch.

Source: Refinitiv

Lower for longer is very groupthink here

BofA writes: "FMS investors have never been as bullish on short-term rates as in Jan'24 (data going back to Apr'01) …a record of 91% expect short term rates to be lower in the next 12 months, up from 87% in Dec'23."

Source: BofA

The big long

Non dealers US equity positioning at very elevated levels.

Source: GS

SPX technicals

SPX remains stuck inside the 4720/4840 range. Chasing break out moves, both ways, has been a costly strategy so far. Note the negative RSI divergence going even more extreme.

Source: Refinitiv

Be boring

Low volatility beating high beta YTD.

Source: Refinitiv

Will "weaks" lead us even lower?

The crash in MEME and most shorted seems to be spilling over...

Source: Refinitiv

2 more weeks to go before buybacks are back in full force

There are 2 weeks left of the buyback blackout window. Companies will start to exit blackout as they report earnings.

Source: Goldman

Lowest since 1976

Jim Reid: "So a big change for China and for the world." Chart shows China Nominal GDP growth as the lowest since 1976 (excluding the Covid year of 2020).

Source: DB

China credit impulse

Nothing seems to be able to get China going...

Source: TS Lombard

New tech bear superlatives needed

The crash in Chinese tech has the HSTECH looking like a small cap stock having profit warned. The index is down 5% overnight, and RSI at lowest levels since the epic crash during the autumn of 2022.

Source: Refinitiv

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a day ago at 14:08

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This article is archived.

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Introducing ZeroHedge Premium. Why Premium?

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All PREMIUM features, plus:

Trending on Zerohedge

Jim Jordan Demands Answers After Biden Admin Caught Flagging "MAGA" And "Trump" To Track Political Opponents' Financial Transactions

"We, The Powers That Be Are Done Playing Grab-Ass. STFU, Follow Orders, Or Else..."

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Crude dynamics, crypto conundrums and static SPX

SPX - range remains intact

Source: Refinitiv

Big spender

Oil - will it?

Source: Refinitiv

Oil - will they?

Source: GS

The Red Sea Ruckus and Retail supply chains

Source: Bernstein

Not remotely comparable

BTC - we haven't seen this in a while

Source: Refinitiv

BTC and the dollar

Source: Refinitiv

BTC and rates

Source: Refinitiv

Rates refusing, tech trying, while VIX and crap stay nervous

Tech leaving rates behind

Source: Refinitiv

That was quick

Source: Refinitiv

Low quality crap

Source: Refinitiv

Russell bear

Source: Refinitiv

VIX not "impressed"

Source: Refinitiv

VIX dealers are short calls

Source: Nomura

VIX short gamma

Source: Nomura

Market and the elections

Source: BCA

Surging rates and stuck equities

4.2%

Source: Refinitiv

Lower for longer is very groupthink here

Source: BofA

The big long

Source: GS

SPX technicals

Source: Refinitiv

Be boring

Source: Refinitiv

Will "weaks" lead us even lower?

Source: Refinitiv

2 more weeks to go before buybacks are back in full force

Source: Goldman

Lowest since 1976

Source: DB

China credit impulse

Source: TS Lombard

New tech bear superlatives needed

Source: Refinitiv

Today's Top Stories

Jim Jordan Demands Answers After Biden Admin Caught Flagging "MAGA" And "Trump" To Track Political Opponents' Financial Transactions